Dubai - VPI Residential Capital Values - January 2024

The Dubai residential market witnessed continued growth in property valuations during January 2024, alongside a significant update standardising the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) base year to 2021 across all asset classes. This milestone edition highlights an emerging trend where apartment capital gains are accelerating to catch up with the villa market.

• Citywide residential capital values (VPI) reached 160.6 points, reflecting a steady 2% monthly increase and a 21.5% annual rise.
• Villa capital values achieved 201.4 points, demonstrating a 2.3% monthly gain and a strong 26.4% annual increase.
• The apartment submarket experienced capital gains accelerating by 1.8% monthly and expanding by 17% annually to reach 134 points—marking the highest annual capital growth for apartments witnessed in a decade.
• Off-plan (Oqood) registrations demonstrated massive recovery, rising 10.4% annually and surging 284.9% monthly after a weaker December.
• Prime annual performers in the villa market included Jumeirah Islands at 34.2% and Palm Jumeirah at 33.8%, while top apartment gains were seen in Discovery Gardens at 28.5% and Palm Jumeirah at 26.5%.

Institutional investors and family offices requiring a newly standardised, 2021-benchmarked valuation baseline to track the highest annual apartment capital growth seen in a decade.

Lenders and risk management teams seeking independent, evidence-based metrics on the 284.9% monthly surge in off-plan registrations to accurately underwrite residential real estate exposure.

Real estate developers requiring clear visibility into sub-market momentum and shifting affordability constraints to strategically time and price upcoming mid-market project pipelines.

High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and active market participants seeking to validate pricing and entry strategies across outperforming prime enclaves like Jumeirah Islands and Discovery Gardens.

Policymakers and government entities focused on monitoring sustainable price growth and long-term residential sector resilience at the start of the year.

This comprehensive index equips decision-makers with the empirical clarity required to navigate Dubai's dynamic residential property cycle in January 2024.

• Benchmark individual residential assets and portfolios against an updated, authoritative citywide capital value trajectory standardising the market's post-pandemic recovery baseline to 2021.
• Understand the precise valuation dynamics driving the accelerated performance of the apartment market as it begins to close the growth gap with the villa sector.
• Track shifting market liquidity through detailed analysis of the massive recovery in off-plan registrations versus ready home sales volumes.
• Support complex pricing, acquisition, and risk mitigation decisions using an independent, valuation-led index based on actual market data.